AnalysisMobile

Strong winds, dry weather heighten brush fire threat

Combined strong winds and dry weather will heighten the brush fire threat in part of Southern New England on Sunday. Winds may gust to 45 mph, and a dry airmass combined with a dry ground and brush in Southern New England could lead to fast spreading brush fires. A Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch was posted by the National Weather Service. The cold weather will help to mitigate the threat because it lowers the chance for ignition.

2013-11-23-fire

MAZ005>007-010>021-240915-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...
WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT
450 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK TOMORROW...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THERE IS AN ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER RISK EXPECTED.

ONE MITIGATING FACTOR OF NOTE WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES...WHICH
WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK FREEZING. THIS WILL LOWER THE CHANCE FOR
IGNITION.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-
240445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FW.W.0003.131124T1500Z-131124T2300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-
NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
345 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG
  ISLAND...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

* IMPACTS...RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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