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Computer Model Trends: Potential late-week storm

The potential for a snow storm in the Northeastern United States late next week is increasing with every passing computer model run. The Saturday morning runs are more or less in agreement that there will be a moderate to major storm from the Mid-Atlantic to New England between late-Thursday and early Saturday. The models are also in fair agreement that the storm will be followed by the coldest weather of the season, if not the past several years, in SNE. Here is a look at what each model is forecasting for late next week.

GFS Model

The GFS model has had a storm of some sort in the Thursday-Friday timeframe for a few consecutive runs. It has snow ahead of the main system on Thursday, with the bulk of the snow coming Thursday night into Friday morning.

GFS model spreads snow into SNE ahead of the storm on Thursday
GFS model spreads snow into SNE ahead of the storm on Thursday
GFS models is more progressive with the storm than the European, and the snow totals are not as impressive
GFS models is more progressive with the storm than the European, and the snow totals are not as impressive
GFS model snow totals are 6"+ for most of RI and SE MA, except for Cape Cod and islands
GFS model snow totals are 6″+ for most of RI and SE MA, except for Cape Cod and islands
The 12Z GFS model drops the temperature below zero in most of SNE next Saturday morning in the wake of the storm.
The 12Z GFS model drops the temperature below zero in most of SNE next Saturday morning in the wake of the storm.

Canadian Model

The track of the CMC model into Cape Cod Bay seems too close given the setup
The track of the CMC model into Cape Cod Bay seems too close given the setup
CMC model tracks the storm close enough to the coast that it is mainly rain south of I-95. Heavy interior SNE snow.
CMC model tracks the storm close enough to the coast that it is mainly rain south of I-95. Heavy interior SNE snow.

ECMWF Model

The European model is the most impressive with a raging Nor’easter or blizzard for Southern New England. The height of the storm would be Thursday night, with more than a foot of snow on the ground by Friday morning.

ECMWF with the impressive storm just south of SNE late next week
ECMWF with the impressive storm just south of SNE late next week
ECMWF with a full-blown Nor'easter or blizzard for SNE late in the week. More than a foot of snow with strong winds
ECMWF with a full-blown Nor’easter or blizzard for SNE late in the week. More than a foot of snow with strong winds
ECMWF wind gust potential with a Nor'easter late in the week. Showing the possibility of 50+ mph gusts in RI, 60+in SE MA
ECMWF wind gust potential with a Nor’easter late in the week. Showing the possibility of 50+ mph gusts in RI, 60+ mph in SE MA
ECMWF low temperatures are similar to the GFS model for next Saturday morning. Sub-zero is common in SNE
ECMWF low temperatures are similar to the GFS model for next Saturday morning. Sub-zero is common in SNE

JMA Model

JMA model is closer to the GFS solution with a weaker storm further south - a moderate snow storm for SNE
JMA model is closer to the GFS solution with a weaker storm further south – a moderate snow storm for SNE

GEFS Ensemble

Most GFS Ensemble members have a storm late next week. The timing, track, and intensity vary, but the odds favor some inclement weather in New England
Most GFS Ensemble members have a storm late next week. The timing, track, and intensity vary, but the odds favor some inclement weather in New England

The Bottom Line

There is still a long way to go before next Thursday, and this is the first model run where most of the computer models agree on a significant storm. The ECMWF has a good track record in the 4-6 day period, and it also has the most impressive storm. You’ll probably hear the hype machine start to crank up this weekend, and it will be at full throttle if the models do not change their tune by early in the week. At this point, it looks like a decent bet that there will be some snow Thursday-Friday, but the timing, track, and totals are still questionable. There is the potential for a whopper snow storm, but a moderate storm or mixed precipitation event are also still on the table.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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