Long Range Forecast – December 19
A big weekend warm-up will help to bring the December monthly temperature closer to normal after a very cold two-week stretch. Thursday was the first warmer than normal day in most of Southern New England since December 6. The month is averaging 4.3 degrees colder than normal, but, after Monday, that should be closer to 2 degrees colder than normal.
The ground will be bare again by Monday, and the odds are pretty low for a white Christmas in Southern New England. But…the door is still not slammed shut on the possibility of seeing some snow on Christmas Eve. The cold front that brings back the winter-like chill on Monday night will not be far offshore. Some computer models develop a wave of low pressure or over-running precipitation that would most likely deliver snow. Most computer models are cold and dry for Christmas Eve and Day. The current forecast is for partly cloudy skies, but I’m still not 100% sold on it.
Overall, the pattern for the end of December looks closer to what we saw in the past two weeks compared to what we’ll see this weekend. A couple of systems could threaten SNE with snow or rain. It looks like December 27-29 and Dec 31-Jan 2 are the most likely days to see inclement weather. Some models have been consistent with an East Coast storm near New Year’s Day. The weather pattern looks cold in the Northeast into early 2014.