After getting a look at the afternoon computer model runs, the consensus at this time is for a fairly minor event in Southern New England. The temperature near the ground will not be very cold, and the storm does not look like it will intensify soon enough to bring more than a few hours of steady precipitation – if at all. However, about 20% of the ECMWF Ensemble members show the potential for more than 2″ of snow in the I-95 corridor, so the forecast still bears watching. We will update you in the morning.
We mentioned the upcoming pattern being “boom or bust” and “high potential” for snow in New England in the Long Range Forecast. There is sure to be some buzz on Tuesday morning about the chance of snow on Saturday. The ECMWF model is indicating a fast-developing Nor’easter that brings much snow to SNE northwest of I-95. Let’s take a look at what the other models are saying about the potential for a storm with a trough digging in the Northeast.
The Bottom Line
The forecast needs to be watched very closely for Saturday. The ECMWF is probably extreme with such a rapidly developing storm near the coast. At this point, we favor something closer to the Canadian solution, which brings more of a moderate event. The GFS seems to be having trouble handling the digging trough and jet stream energy in the Northeast. Look for a quick update to this post later today after the new information comes in.