We have been eyeing the potential for a storm on Thursday for a few days. The latest computer model runs are some of the most aggressive in bringing a potent storm to the Mid-Atlantic and New England. Even though there will be more than a week of below 35° weather leading up to the storm, the high pressure providing the cold air will be sliding into the Canadian Maritimes, and the storm will definitely have to take a “sweet spot” track to produce heavy snow in the I-95 corridor.
Here is a comparison of the computer model runs from Saturday night to Sunday morning.
GFS Model + Ensembles
The Bottom Line
The models have converged on a track that is offshore, but close enough for a significant impact in Southern New England. This is just one computer model run. It would not surprise me if the models backed off this higher-impact scenario with the next run due out tonight. As you can see by looking at the different ensemble members, there is still a lot of uncertainty with the track and intensity of the storm. Even the timing is still in question, with some models having the storm peak Thursday morning, while others favor Thursday evening.
There is not much wiggle room with this storm’s track. The very cold weather will be on the way out, and if it is a big snowstorm, it will have to take a track that keeps just enough cold air around while also allowing the heavy precipitation to reach Southern New England. It’s happened before, but the odds favor rain getting involved in the I-95 corridor and near the coast.
We’ll keep you posted!