Pro Video Update: Computer Model Trends
The clear trend today is for the storm to track closer to the coast. The models that were far offshore now offer a snowstorm, the models that were borderline between snow/rain are now mainly rain in the I-95 corridor. That is the way we are leaning – there will likely be a bit of wintry precipitation at the onset, but based on the current consensus track, the storm will come close enough to draw plenty of above-freezing air into Southern New England and the bulk of the storm in most of RI and SE MA will be wind-driven rain. The temperature may climb into the 40s on the Cape and Islands, and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. The storm has the potential to bring 1-2″ of rain and wind gusts near the coast over 40 mph.
With three days to go, there is still time for the forecast to change, but we have growing confidence in this being a major winter storm for part of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, interior Northeast, and Northern New England, but not for Southeastern New England.
It’s been plenty cold for snow for most of the past week, but the high pressure that is parked over Southern New England early in the week will drift offshore setting up the potential for the dreaded easterly wind that will kill a good snowstorm in a hurry.
It looks like the storm will go one of three ways:
- A track close to the coast that brings a bit of snow followed by mainly rain to the coast and I-95 corridor, with the chance of it staying all or mostly heavy, wet snow in the hills of NW RI and Worcester County.
- A track offshore where it just brushes by Southern New England with some light snow and not a big impact
- A sweet spot track that is close enough for heavy snow, but not so close that draws in milder air for a change to rain.
Based on the pattern and latest computer model trends, I weigh the odds at 60% inland (mainly rain) track, 25% sweet spot (snow) track, 15% offshore (light) track. Those odds are for the I-95 corridor. There is a better chance of a snow track inland because there is more wiggle room. I think the high moving offshore will help the storm to take more of a coast-hugging track.
Check out the video for more details.