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Computer Model Trends: Friday AM Update


The trend is east with the 12Z Computer models on next week’s storm. The consensus is for a glancing blow with the biggest impact on Cape Cod and the islands. If that trend continues, the storm will fall into the near-miss category soon. It’s still 4 days out, and a lot can change. Check out the different positions of the storm from the 50 ECMWF members. Those to the left of the green circle would be bigger impact scenarios.



The odds of some impact from a storm in the middle of next week are increasing for Southeastern New England. However, the computer models have not trended to a direct hit for the I-95 corridor. Right now, it looks like the biggest impact will be in Eastern Massachusetts, particularly on Cape Cod and the islands. The storm is still 4-5 days away, and all it will take is a slight shift west to bring the nastiest weather west to Boston and Providence.

The GFS and Canadian models trended west overnight, the ECMWF (European) model trended a bit east. The Canadian has moved so far west that the highest snow totals are northwest of I-95, with rain for part of the storm in SE MA. The GFS, while west of yesterday’s run, is still not a major storm for the I-95 corridor. It whoops up on the Cape and islands pretty good with snow and very strong winds. The latest European run is similar to the GFS with the biggest impact in far SE MA. Check out the video for the more analysis.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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