A meteorological bomb is defined as a storm where the central pressure drops at least 24mb in 24 hours. The storm that develops in the Atlantic Ocean next week will be explosive. If some models are correct, you can forget about an average of 1mb/hour, this storm may deepen at 2mb/hour over 24 hours! Let’s call it nuclear.
Those who have followed me for a while know that I like to throw around the phrase “playing with fire” when referring to these big storms that are just far enough offshore to not look like a major impact in Southern New England. With this one we are playing with a blowtorch. If it comes any closer than the current consensus forecast it will be a major blizzard from I-95 east to Cape Cod and the islands. As it is, this will likely be a blizzard for the Cape and islands.
The computer model trend over night was a nudge to the west over yesterday’s run. As currently projected, I think it’s a 3-6″ event for RI and 6-12″ in Eastern MA. It’s still a little early and too low confidence for a first-look snow map, but that gives you an idea of the current thought process. If it’s any further west, we quickly get to the widespread 8-16″ storm scenario. Check out the very impressive computer model maps below.
The GFS has a very intense storm, but not as strong as the ECMWF or Canadian model. It would be an Eastern MA blizzard, and a few inches of snow in RI.You can see the core of the strong winds just off the coast. A slight jog west, and hurricane-force gusts would hit Cape Cod.GFS Snow totals – The heaviest snow misses RI. The model does not show snow on Cape/Islands because of the way the grid points are set up. There would be 6″+ out there.EPS Ensemble mean snow – this is an average of the 50 EPS members. It shows a moderate to high-impact event for RI and SE MA.EPS Control Snow forecast – The EPS Control run with a heavy snow event in coastal SE MAEPS Precipitation forecast – heaviest is just offshore…playing with a blowtorch.ECWMF wind gusts – potential for hurricane-force gusts just off shore or on Cape/IslandsECMWF Operational snow forecast – A MAJOR event for coastal SE MAECMWF Ensemble low positions – all the different members show an intense storm. Some are historically strong. Anything in the circled area would be a HUGE storm for Eastern MA and quite a big deal for RI, too.Canadian model – snow forecast – A raging blizzard on Cape Cod and the islands. Notice the sharp cutoff on the western edge of the storm. Therefore, if the storm track shifts slightly east, the impact goes down dramatically.Canadian – that is a wicked intense storm southeast of Nantucket. Incredible.
