UPDATE – 12Z ECMWF and CMC
Both models are much farther south than the 12Z NAM, which is an outlier from the model consensus at this point. However, I’m reluctant to totally throw in the towel on this one. We’ll see where the 00Z runs go, but it would not be a shocker if they trended north of the 12Z runs.
UPDATE – 12Z GFS
The 12Z GFS is a complete swing and a miss for snow in Southern New England. It has shifted south from the overnight runs and does not bring a flake of snow to SNE. Based on the way the winter has gone, I tend to lean toward the GFS miss instead of the NAM smash hit. Next up is the CMC then the ECMWF.
UPDATE – 12Z NAM
The 12Z NAM model is “robust” for Southern New England, and the timing of the storm is mainly Sunday night, which would help with accumulations. The model projects 8-12″ of snow for Southern New England. I’m very anxious to see what the 12Z GFS has to offer.
From Earlier Friday
An on again, off again Southern New England storm is more “on again” based on the latest computer model trends. While it has not risen above nuisance status, there is still potential for this storm to have an impact on travel in part of Southern New England on Monday. Keep in mind, there are lots of factors to consider with a snowstorm just before the start of spring. The snow needs to really come down during the midday hours if it is going to stick to the roads. Most of the big impact storms after March 15 have happened at night. This one is scheduled to come primarily during the day. The timing is not set in stone because the models are splitting the storm into two separate bundles of energy. If it ends up being one storm instead of two systems, that could change the timing, intensity and impact. Here is a look at some of the latest model trends as of the Thursday night and predawn Friday runs.
The Bottom Line
It looks like there will be some snow in SNE on St. Patty’s Day, but it is still unclear if it will be enough to cause major travel issues and potential school closures or delays. We will keep you posted throughout the weekend.