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Computer Model Trends: Sunday AM Update

Confidence is increasing in accumulating snow in RI and SE MA Tuesday night into Wednesday, but the storm’s impact, especially in Rhode Island, remains questionable. There are still plausible scenarios where the storm brings just a minor accumulation to the I-95 corridor, with several inches on Cape Cod. It is also possible that this storm is the biggest widespread snowstorm in Southern New England since the February 2013 blizzard. The overnight computer models did little to clarify the situation. The Canadian model took a big jog east and is a relatively low impact event. The 00Z GFS run was low to moderate impact, and the 06Z run shifted to moderate to high impact. The European model went all-in with a dire scenario that would bring a 1-2 foot blizzard with widespread power outages and hurricane force wind gusts on Cape Cod and the islands! The European ensembles also shifted closer to the coast, and if that model plays out, we are in for a heck of a storm.

I think it’s human nature to focus on the worst-case scenarios, and many weather enthusiasts on social media have a difficult time giving as much weight to some of the lower impact outcomes.  Our first-look accumulation map posted yesterday is not a major event for most of Southern New England. Are we ready to make big changes to that map? Not yet, but we’re getting closer to that point. IF the model consensus shifts west this afternoon, then I think it’s time to up ante on how much of an impact this storm will have in Southern New England.

The bottom-line is all SNE residents should expect some snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. In RI and all of Eastern Massachusetts west of Cape Cod it’s a must-watch forecast. A major storm is still possible in these areas. Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket residents should be thinking about preparations for a major storm – nothing new in those spots over the past couple of years. The GFS model, which has been fairly steady with its forecasts, has 40-55 mph sustained winds over Cape Cod and the islands, with the potential for 60-70 mph gusts. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely on north and eastern facing shores.

Check out the video for more on the storm. We’ll continue to keep you updated on rightweather.com.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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One Comment

  1. The biggest thing I see with this storm is the wind!! I think only a couple to 3 inches of snow if that will fall, but the main event will be the wind. That would be for Rhode Island, could get more in the way of snow Cape and Islands.

    I just don’t see this storm throwing out a lot of snow. If the system does “Bomb” out, then we will get more wind than anything else.

    Eyes getting tired looking at all the model runs, but that is what I would predict!! Lets see how things work out in the next couple of days!

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