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Long Range Forecast – March 20

Everyone knows March has been unseasonably cold in the Eastern United States, but, so far, the weather has been relatively quiet in Southern New England. There has only been 1.2″ of snow in Providence, and just 1.33″ of rain – about 40% of normal. While we are enjoying a brief thaw for the start of spring, there is no doubt that cold weather will return next week, and it may come with some wintry weather action.

The first chance at some snow is late Sunday into early Monday. This looks like a low-end threat as most of the models keep the precipitation south of Southern New England, but it bears watching for a possible northward trend.

The real threat in the next two weeks is in the middle of next week when a storm develops near Florida and moves north-northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. Confidence is high that a storm will form, but the exact track of the storm remains a mystery. The setup is good for at least a minor impact in Eastern New England. I think the storm will trend west of where it is now projected, and, therefore, may become a major headache for Southern New England with a snow/wind combination. This time of the year, it’s take a major event for snow to accumulate during the day. Some computer models have just that type of storm. So, while the storm is no lock for a big impact, a spring snowstorm is a legit threat. We’ll have a better idea about the storm’s track in the next few days.

There are no huge warm-ups in the forecast, but the overall weather pattern does not look as cold after the storm threat in the middle of next week.  Rain is possible next weekend.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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