By now you have probably heard about the potential for a storm along the East Coast next week. We alluded to it on the Long Range Forecast a couple of days ago, and not much has changed in regards to the expected pattern next week. There will be a sharpening trough in the Eastern United States, and a storm will likely form in the Southeastern United States and head northeast into the Atlantic Ocean. The speed and degree of the trough sharpening will decide whether the storm misses, hits, or brushes Southern New England. We will check the computer model trends in the coming days, but tonight I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the top 10 historical analogs for the jet stream pattern that is being forecasted for the middle of next week.
The NOAA CPC puts together this map and lists the analogs. I have gone back through the records to take a look at the 5 days surrounding each date listed on the analogs. There are a couple that jump out right away…the 1993 March Superstorm, and the April 1982 Blizzard. Below are the historical records for Providence from the dates listed.
As you can see, nearly all the analogs featured some snow in the Providence area. 40% of the analogs have what would be considered a significant winter storm at this time of the year. The bottom-line is we need to watch this pattern very closely. History says there is a reasonable chance of a storm impacting the Northeast when the jet stream sets up like it is expected to next week.