It is hard to believe I’m making another accumulation map. It’s been over a month since the last big snow threat in Southern New England. At this point in the season, we should be thinking about getting the lawnmower ready, not the snowblower. As Bill Belichick famously says “It is what it is”, so here goes…
This is a rather conservative estimate based on the wide spread of possible solutions for this storm. While it’s unlikely this storm will completely miss Southern New England with accumulating snow, there is a reasonable chance that the storm comes closer than we’re projecting on this map, and the totals would ramp up considerably. A slight shift west puts 6-12″ over all of RI and Boston, and even higher totals for Southeastern Massachusetts where 18″ would not be out of the question. A closer track would also mean blizzard conditions for most of Southeastern New England based on the storm’s projected intensity – which is borderline extreme.
The bottom-line is it looks like a plowable snow for Southeastern New England, with blizzard conditions on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. At this time of the year snow has a tough time accumulating during the day. The height of this storm is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning – perfect timing for the snow to accumulate. It does not look like an extremely wet and heavy snow, with plenty of cold air aloft and temperatures in the 20s near the surface. The Wednesday morning commute looks pretty rough, especially southeast of I-95.
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