In a way this storm reminds me of Sandy. Not because of the impact (hopefully) in the United States, but because we have talked about it for a LONG time. You may remember we first mentioned this storm during last Monday’s Long Range Forecast. It has looked like a meteorological (nuclear) bomb for a few days, and the models are not backing off their predictions of a sea level pressure similar to a strong category three hurricane. We are playing with a blow torch, indeed.
This is a forecast that could change considerably in the next 24 hours. Most recent runs of the Canadian global and NAM hi-res model shifted west, with a bigger impact in SNE than they were forecasting in the past few runs. The 18Z NAM predicts 5-6″ of snow in Providence, 10″ in New Bedford, and 12-20″ on Cape Cod, with the potential for hurricane-force wind gusts on Cape Cod and the islands!
Thankfully, the ECMWF stayed solid with a track that has some impact, but not an overwhelming one, in RI, and a blizzard for Cape Cod and the islands. That has been our prediction from the start, and, even though we nudged our snow forecast totals down a bit (partly out of boredom?), the first map may be closer to correct than the most recent map, but we’re not going to start bouncing back and forth every few hours to split hairs on 2-4″ and 3-6″ forecasts. If tonight’s runs call for a change, we’ll make it.
This is going to be one of the most impressive looking storms you’ll ever see. A projection from one of our models: pic.twitter.com/Ind3EJu9dA
— Right Weather (@RightWeather) March 24, 2014