The first Tropical Depression of the Atlantic hurricane season formed late Monday evening, June 30, 2014. The tropical system was centered 95 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida Tuesday morning at 8 am. Conditions are favorable for strengthening, and it is expected to become Tropical Storm Arthur later Tuesday as it moves north off the Florida coast.
Arthur is forecast to continue intensifying with a gradual turn to the northeast that will put it east of South Carolina early Thursday morning. It may strengthen into a hurricane as it nears the Outer Banks of North Carolina Thursday night, and it expected to be off the Mid-Atlantic coast on the 4th of July. You can track the system here: http://bit.ly/hurricane-track
Impact in Southern New England
It appears that the storm will stay far enough offshore to spare most of Southern New England from its strong winds. However, the system will likely interact with a stalled cold front and bring locally heavy downpours on the 4th of July. Overall, there are no major changes to the forecast for the 4th in Rhode Island and interior Southeastern Massachusetts. We have called for scattered showers and thunderstorms for several days. The best chance of winds over 30 mph is on Cape Cod and the islands. There will also be some rough surf thrown at area beaches if the storm becomes a hurricane.
It’s still a little early to know exactly what track the storm will take, and how much it will intensify. The stalled cold front’s position will also be critical in determining if the 4th of July is just showery or a total washout. We expect the storm and cold front to be out of the picture by Saturday morning, and both Saturday and Sunday should be nice days, with highs in the 70s near the coast, and 80s inland.
We will continue to keep you updated on the forecast for the 4th of July.
