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Southern New England 2014-2015 Winter Outlook

November weather can be a pretty good indicator of what kind of winter it will be in Southern New England. If it is this year, then get set for a harsh winter in New England because November was cold, wet, and snowy. While we do not think the upcoming winter will be as cold (relative to normal) as November was, we expect it to be stormy and snowy. It looks like December will actually be a relatively mild month before it turns seasonably cold in January and February.

There is a slight chance that El Niño develops this winter, but even if it does not, there will still likely be enough of an influence on the southern branch of the jet stream to allow for an active storm track across the Southeastern United States. Last winter featured many small winter weather events. We think there is a better chance of bigger storms moving through this winter. As always, precipitation type will be an issue in Southern New England with these storms, so we are not going bonkers with our snow forecast. There is usually around 35″ of snow in the Providence area, so a forecast of 100-150% of normal is for about 35-50″ of snow.

It was brought to my attention that I forgot two of the staples of my winter forecast…the white Christmas forecast and the 12″+ storm at TF Green. This year, I am saying there will not be a white Christmas in the Providence area. Regarding the potential for a single storm to deliver more than 12″ of snow to TF Green, even though I think there will be some good-sized storms, I’m going to play the odds and say there will not be a storm that wallops the Providence area with over a foot of snow. Historically, it happens once every five years.

The confidence level is fairly high that it will not be a dry winter. There is less certainty about the temperature, and if the pattern reverts to what it was in November by late in December or early January, than it could be colder than our forecast of slightly warmer than normal conditions for the season.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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