The recent mild stretch has not been enough to push the January monthly temperature back to normal in Southeastern New England. The temperature is still running a couple of degrees below normal, and the rest of the month does not look particularly warm. So far this winter, the trend has been for cold dry stretches with the warmth coming when storms arrive as they track over or west of New England. As a result, there has been above normal precipitation, but well below normal snowfall. The storm track will likely be shifting to a more typical mid-winter setup in the next couple of weeks.
The first significant storm in this new pattern is likely to happen in the middle of this weekend. This looks like a transition storm, as it will not be as warm as some of the earlier storms this winter, but there will not be a ton of cold air around to allow for an all-snow event in all of Southern New England. Right now, it looks like the best chance of snow is in NW RI and Worcester County, with a mix in the I-95 corridor, and mainly rain near the coast. The storm is still nearly five days away, and plenty can change with the track, but the model agreement is decent, and we’re fairly confident in a storm that comes close enough for moderate precipitation.
That storm may be followed by a second, colder system early next week. While confidence is lower in a 7-8 day forecast, there are signs that a storm will form off the Eastern Seaboard Monday-Tuesday. There should be enough cold air around for snow, but there is uncertainty about how close to the coast the storm will form. It’s possible that it develops too far out to sea for a major impact. The bottom-line is that there is more snow potential in the next couple of weeks than we’ve seen so far this winter. In a way, it reminds me of two years ago when most of January was very quiet before we got hit hard in February and March. The monthly outlook for February is cold, and it may be premature to write this off as a snow-free winter in Southeastern New England.
