Long-Range Forecast – May 17
The unofficial start of summer (Memorial Day) is less than two weeks away, but, so far, May has not featured too much warm weather in Southeastern New England. The monthly temperature is running 2-3° below normal in the Providence area through May 16. It will stay a bit cool through the midweek before a warm-up late in the workweek and into the weekend.
We are tracking a storm that may bring rain Saturday night into Sunday. Right now, we’re favoring a scenario with at least some showers in RI and SE MA, and a total washout is still on the table. It is also possible that the storm passes far enough south to spare our area any rain, but that is a less than 50/50 proposition at this point. A stubborn area of low pressure could prevent a warm-up early next week while keeping it slightly unsettled and showery. However, as the week progresses, it should get warmer, and the first 80° day of the month is possible by the end of next workweek.
Also, El Niño is waning, and there are signs that La Niña may be developing. If this happens quickly in the next couple of months, then the Atlantic hurricane season could be more active than expected. It’s something to watch.