Soaking rain is likely on Sunday. There is about a 50% chance of at least 0.5″ of rain in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts. The heaviest rain is likely to be over interior Southern New England, but the lawns in Southeastern New England should get a decent drink. It’s unfortunate that the rain arrives on Sunday in June when there are so many outdoor events.
The weather will be mainly dry next workweek. An upper-level area of low pressure nearby will lead to pop-up afternoon showers. It looks like the best chance of getting wet is Tuesday afternoon as disturbance pinwheels around the upper low. It may reach 80° inland on Monday, but most of next week will feature highs in the 70s. The humidity should not be very high with a mainly west or northwest breeze.
The general theme of near to slightly cooler than normal weather will continue into the second full week of June. The storm track through the northern United States looks fairly active, and while this does not favor soakers, it will likely keep the heat and humidity from setting up shop in the Northeast.
Looking at the summer as a whole, there is a decent chance of at least normal temperatures, and it will likely be slightly warmer than normal. The pattern also favors near or above normal rain, and the near-term looks wetter than normal through June. Most of June looks near-normal temperature-wise, without any lengthy stretches of searing heat.
A shift from El Niño to La Niña will help the hurricane season be more active than the last couple of years. I think there’s a good chance that we’ll have more than the average number of hurricanes and tropical storms this year. As for whether one will head for New England, that’s impossible to predict. There is also a record long streak of 10-plus years since the last major hurricane (Wilma) made landfall in the United States.
