It’s hard to believe that we have already reached the midway point of July and meteorological summer. So far this month, the temperature and precipitation have not been far from normal in the Providence area. Overall, the pattern looks relatively warm and dry through the next week.
As we hit the last week of the month, it may not be as warm (relatively to normal), and there are some shower chances, but the pattern does not look very wet.
This weekend should be mainly or all dry. There will be a disturbance nearby, but it will probably not have enough punch to lead to widespread rain. A few showers are possible late Saturday until early Sunday. Both days will be seasonably warm, with highs in the 80s.
Warm and humid weather is likely early next week before the next cold front threatens with showers/storms on Tuesday. The early outlook is for widespread rain as that front passes, but it’s early, and many times in July these fronts do not deliver on their early promise of rain. It could be more hit and miss storms on Tuesday.
Relatively quiet and seasonable weather is likely in the mid to late workweek before the next front arrives late next week. Looking ahead to the last few days of July, there may be a stubborn storm system somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic coast. Some of the computer models have it close enough to the coast that there would be significant rain along the Eastern Seaboard. You can see that reflected in the EPS rain chart at the bottom of this post. However, most (about 70%) of the EPS members do not have steady rain in Southeastern New England late this month.
It looks like July will finish with an average temperature slightly above normal, and below normal precipitation – possibly leading to moderate drought conditions in RI and part of SE MA.