Hermine is likely to strengthen in the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, and the track of the storm spares Southeastern New England the brunt of it through Labor Day. The storm will still be south of Southern New England on Tuesday, and it’s not out of the question that it makes another run at RI and SE MA before heading out to sea. The more likely scenario has a glancing blow, at worst, on its way out.
You can expect fringe effects from the storm during the holiday weekend. There will be some rain bands coming through by late Sunday into early Monday, but there will not be enough rain for flash flooding, and it may not even be enough to dent the drought in most areas. At the high-end, there could be 1-1.5 inches of rain in RI and SE MA. A more conservative estimate is around a half-inch.
Winds will pick up, but they should not get strong enough to cause widespread tree damage. The windiest weather this weekend is likely Sunday night.
Big waves will lead to at least minor beach erosion for a few days as the storm churns up the Atlantic.
The worst of the storm is likely along the Jersey Shore and near the Chesapeake Bay area. They will get a sustained lashing of strong winds, pounding waves, and heavy rain Sunday into early Monday.
Below is a day-by-day forecast for the storm.
Filtered sunshine in the morning, more afternoon clouds. Easterly winds 5-15 mph. Highs in the 70s.
Cloudy, becoming breezy, stays dry. Lows in the 60s. Easterly wind 10-20 mph
Cloudy, winds increase during the day. East-northeast winds 10-20 mph sustained, with 30-35 mph gusts possible by sunset. Dry for most or all of the day, with showers likely at night. Temps in the low 70s.
This is likely the worst of the storm, but it will not be too bad in RI and SE MA. Showers are likely. There could be some heavy downpours, and 0.5-1” of rain is possible. That is not enough rain to cause flash flooding. East-northeast winds 10-25 mph sustained, with 25-40 mph gusts possible in most spots. Some higher gusts are likely on the islands and with a couple of miles of the coast. If gusts reach 40 mph, then a few downed limbs are possible. I don’t expect enough wind to lead to widespread tree damage. Temps in the 60s.
Partly to mostly cloudy. Cannot rule out showers. Breezy, but not extremely windy. In the 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph range. Temps in the 70s.
The forecast is uncertain for Hermine between Tue-Thu. Some computer models bring it relatively close the SNE islands, and that would bring another round of 30-40 mph wind gusts to your area. Other forecasts are farther south, with little impact. At this point, I do not think any special preparations are necessary. I will keep you updated.
The east-northeast wind means that while there may be minor flooding, it will likely not be a huge problem. The peak storm surge will be only 1-2’ in RI and SE MA.