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September 10th AM Update

Irma near Key West; Still Watching Hurricane Jose

Hurricane Irma has regained Category 4 strength with winds of 130 mph. The eye of the storm looks somewhat ragged on radar this morning, and it will be interesting from a meteorological perspective to see if the storm verifies anywhere close to 130 mph sustained winds. As of 7 am Sunday, the strongest gusts being reported in S Florida were in the 80 mph range. From a human perspective, if the wind never gusts over 100 mph, I would be happy. As a meteorologist, I would like to see the storms classified as accurately as possible by the NHC. There’s no doubt this was an extreme storm when it moved through the northern Caribbean islands, but it does not look as organized now.

It still looks like Irma will be a non-factor for Southern New England. Most of the upcoming week will be dry, with showers possible on Friday into next weekend as what’s left of the storm drifts into the Northeast. It does not look like soaking rain in that time frame.

We’re still watching Hurricane Jose. The most likely scenario has the storm doing a loop-the-loop in the Atlantic Ocean and passing out to sea. However, it’s possible that the storm will meander long enough that the upper-level jet stream pattern becomes favorable to draw it closer to the Mid-Atlantic or New England coast. The timing of any potential East Coast threat is early to middle of next week – Sep 18-21.

EPS forecast for Jose
GEPS forecast for Jose
GEFS forecast for Jose
EPS members all over the place with Jose in about a week

Accuracy of a one-week tropical forecast

This is not a statistical analysis of the forecast accuracy for Irma. Take a look at these images below from about a week ago. For the most part, the models were inaccurate with their assessment of where Irma would go. The storm looked like a greater threat to the Carolinas. Just keep these long-range forecasts in mind when thinking about where Jose may end up.

GEPS (Canadian model) Irma forecast from September 2 at 8 pm.
GEFS Irma forecast from September 2 at 8 pm.
EPS Irma forecast from September 2 at 8 pm.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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