Right Weather Pro

September 17th Update

Hyper-active tropics; Jose and Maria both making waves

Hurricane Jose is a borderline Category 2 storm with winds of 90 mph on Sunday. It is dealing with southwest wind shear, but is also over very warm water, so it has strengthened slightly today. It may reach Cat. 2 status with 95+ mph winds later today or on Monday. It’s moving slowly north, and not much change in direction is expected over the next 24 hours. A slight jog to the west would put it in a more threatening place for the New England coast as it would really have to shoot off to the east to not give at least a glancing blow with wind and rain in the midweek.

A wide-range of possible tracks for Jose as it moves north early in the week

I’m leaning towards some impact in all of RI and SE MA from this storm between Tuesday and Thursday. The worst weather will be on Cape Cod and the Islands – closer to the storm’s center. It looks like Jose will come close enough for wind-driven rain bands and coastal flooding. The computer models have flip-flopped a bit on the storm’s exact track, and that’s very important since the heaviest rain and strongest winds are likely to be confined to within 100 miles of the storm’s center.

NHC estimates about a 50/50 chance of tropical storm winds in most of RI and interior SE MA

The European model is the most threatening for RI and SE MA, with several inches of rain and tropical storm (40+ mph) winds from late Tuesday through Thursday. The model also loops Jose around after it moves east, and that continues the breezy and showery weather through the end of the workweek. The operational Euro nails RI with 5-6″ of rain, but the EPS mean is closer to 2″. It all depends on how close the center of Jose gets to the New England coast. It’s tough to give a rain forecast of 0.5-5.0″, but that’s what we’re dealing with because of the track uncertainty at this point.

EPS mean rain forecast

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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