A quiet weather pattern for most of September and October is transitioning to unsettled for late October and early November. A heavy rain storm with strong winds is in the cards for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Showers may linger through the day on Thursday, too. New information suggests a solid 2-3″ for most of RI and SE MA, with the potential for 4-5″ in a few spots. Flash flooding is a concern in any areas that do not drain well during heavy rain. Wind gusts to near 50 mph are possible, and there could be isolated power outages.
Another storm system brings rain late in the weekend into early next week. Another 1-2″ of rain is possible from that one. The good news is it looks like it will be out of the picture by late Monday, and Halloween should be dry and seasonable for trick or treaters.
Further down the road, the Euro weeklies are showing a wetter than normal weather pattern for the next 4-6 weeks. However, if the two storms this week deliver on their promise, then we’re looking at 3-5 inches of rain by Monday afternoon. That’s about a month’s worth of rain in a week, and it will not take much in the following 3-5 weeks to keep the 4-6 week total above normal. It does not look as dry as it was for most of September and October, and I expect about an inch of rain every 10 days through November, which is not far from normal. When you add that to this rainy stretch, that’s why it’s an above normal stretch through the end of next month.
As far as temperatures go, there will be some chilly air invading the Midwest in the next 4-6 weeks, but the pattern still looks relatively warm in New England. It will likely not be 7° above normal like October, but I expect November to average above normal, too.
Regarding winter, I’m always watching Siberian snow cover in October. So far, it’s running a little low, but Judah Cohen (who pioneered this research) expects an increase in the next week.
— Judah Cohen (@judah47) October 20, 2017