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October 4th Update

Muggy Columbus Day weekend; Watching soon-to-be Nate

It’s not often that Columbus Day weekend is warm and muggy, but that will be the case this weekend as a relatively warm weather pattern continues in the Eastern United States. Expect dew points in the 60s from Saturday through early next week. There is some uncertainty about the cloud cover Saturday through Monday, so high temperatures are tougher to forecast. I expect 70s all three days for all of Southeastern New England, but it could reach the 80s if there’s enough sunshine.

Southerly winds high into the atmosphere bring high dew points (muggy) into Southern New England this weekend. Dew points will be 15-25° above normal!

Low temperatures will be in the 60s, and that’s very warm for October. You may need to run the A/C just to keep it very comfortable at night. Most of the weekend looks dry, with an increasing threat of scattered showers on Monday. Something else to be on the lookout for are low clouds and fog at night and in the morning, especially near the coast. The sun angle is not very high at this time of the year, and it could have a tough time burning through the marine deck if it develops overnight.

There is little doubt that TD 16 (Nate) will hit the Gulf Coast, but uncertainty about exactly where, and its path after landfall

The best bet for steady rain in the next week is with the remnants of TD 16 (Nate) as it moves up the Appalachians after being picked up by a cold front approaching from the west. There is a lot of uncertainty with exactly where that storm will hit the Gulf Coast and how strong it will be. Right now, I’m leaning towards the Florida Panhandle as a hurricane on Sunday night into early Monday. The highest likelihood of rain in RI and SE MA is Tuesday into early Wednesday. However, if the storm tracks a bit west as it moves up the East Coast, Southeastern New England could miss soaking rain while part of the Appalachians receives enough for flooding. I’ll be watching it over the next few days.

The Euro operational shows a sharp cut-off between very heavy rain and not much at all.
The EPS mean has the heavier rain west of RI and SE MA

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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