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December 2nd Update

Midweek rain, then the long-awaited colder pattern

Mild weather early in the week will give way to wind and rain midweek before colder weather arrives late in the week. Expect seasonable and dry conditions Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s both days, but Monday looks like the brighter day as clouds will be stubborn again on Sunday.

An increasing southerly wind brings temperatures into the mid to upper 50s Tuesday night. The day looks mainly dry, but cloudy and breezy, with temps climbing through the 40s into the 50s by sunset. Rain is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The rain will likely end midday into the afternoon on Wednesday. Temperatures will fall through the 40s as the rain ends. A flash-freeze is unlikely because the temperature will take at least 8-12 hours to fall below freezing after the rain ends.

The first snow of the season in Southeastern New England is likely in the next 10-15 days, and possibly as soon as late next week. We’ll be watching an offshore storm developing late in the workweek or early next weekend. There may not be enough cold air around for accumulating snow if the storm develops on Friday. However, the pattern will be relatively cold for most or all the second week of December, and odds favor at least 1-2″ of snow falling at some point between December 10-18. 80% of the European EPS members have at least 2″ of snow in the Providence area by December 18.  While that’s certainly not unusual for December, it is a stark change from the recent warm Decembers in Southern New England.

EPS with a greater than 50/50 shot of at least 3″ of snow in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts in the next two weeks
GEFS shows the relatively cold pattern arriving around December 7th.
The core of the cold will likely be west of New England, but it still looks colder than normal in RI and SE MA Dec 10-17

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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