A soggy Sunday will give way to a nice stretch of weather to end February. After 0.5-1″ of rain on Sunday, we’ll get back to some sun on Monday. It’s already been a very mild month, and the last three days will be warmer than normal. Look for highs in the low to mid 50s Monday through Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s.
A storm system moving west to east across the United States will have an impact in Southern New England late in the week. Right now, it looks like it will stay dry through Thursday, with temperatures again in the 50s. The storm will strengthen somewhere near the SNE coast Friday before drifting out to sea on Saturday. It’s early, but I am favoring mainly or all rain from the storm based on the consensus track. If the track shifts just a bit south, then there’s a better chance of wintry precipitation. It’s a scenario where there’s not much middle ground between a moderate-heavy rain event and a similarly strong snow event. If it brings snow, it’s likely to bring a decent amount of it. There’s not much cold air around, so the track of the storm is very important. At this point, the consensus strongly favors a mainly elevation and interior snow threat.
Coastal flooding is another concern, particularly in Eastern Massachusetts. Tides will be astronomically high and the wind may be persistent for a couple of days out of the east or northeast. Those two combined factors could lead to moderate flooding on eastern facing shores. Powerful wind gusts are possible near the coast if the storm strengthens as it passes by.
The early outlook is for dry weather late next weekend before another storm may threaten in the middle of the following week.