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February 3rd Update

Rain on Sunday; Wintry mix possible in the midweek

A cold start to the weekend gives way to clouds and eventually rain on Sunday. Expect highs in the upper 20s on Saturday under blue skies. Clouds gather and it stays in the 20s to low 30s Saturday night. Showers are possible Sunday morning, with a better chance of steady rain by mid to late afternoon. It will be rainy during the Super Bowl. Rain ends late at night with dry skies returning by dawn on Monday. The temperature will fall through the 30s late Sunday night, and may reach freezing by sunrise. If so, a few icy patches are possible.

Expect quiet and dry weather early next week. Highs will be in the 30s on Monday and Tuesday, with clouds rolling in late Tuesday. A storm system in the midweek may bring accumulating snow Wednesday morning before a change to mix and then rain in the afternoon. An early outlook is for 1-3″ of snow, with the most in NW RI and northern CT. Stay tuned on that forecast. If the storm tracks farther south, it gets snowier. If it’s farther north, it could be all rain again.

European model snow forecast for late Tuesday night through Wednesday

The long-range outlook features more precipitation chances at the end of next week. It still looks like a fairly active storm track in February. The main track is not favorable for all-snow events. That may shift as the month progresses, but recent runs of the European model suggest that the Arctic air building in Canada and central U.S. may not set up shop in the Eastern US. The 46-day temperature outlook is quite mild. The GFS model is not as bullish on a mild Feb-Mar. It has temperatures near normal in mid-February. It also has an active storm track in the East. I’m not ready to call for an early spring yet!

EPS mean snow forecast for the rest of winter favors northern New England getting hit hard, with mixed events more likely in Southern New England
EPS Weeklies 46-day temp anomaly
GEFS precipitation anomaly – above normal along Eastern Seaboard north of FL
GEFS has near-normal temperatures in New England in mid-February

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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