Right Weather Pro

May 12th Update

A showery Saturday gives way to dry skies on Sunday. It will be unseasonably cool Saturday with temps in the low-mid 50s. Sunday looks a bit brighter and milder with highs in the low to mid 60s. Quiet weather is likely early in the week. Expect highs in the 60s/70s with some sun on Monday. It may reach 80 inland on Tuesday. Scattered afternoon showers and t-storms are possible as a front moves south.

A frontal boundary nearby can make the long-range (4+ days) forecast very difficult in May. The temperature can vary by 20° or more depending on the wind direction. It’s best to keep a close eye on the forecast for the latest on where the front will set up. It’s not just the temperature uncertainty that comes with a fickle front, there’s also the potential for rain as jet stream disturbances ride along the boundary. The bottom-line is the extended forecast is rather uncertain for this week!

EPS rain forecast for the next week shows 1-2″ in Southeastern New England, but much less precipitation in Northern New England. That speaks to the uncertainty of the precipitation forecast in the next 7-10 days. 

Much cooler weather is ahead for Wednesday. Expect highs in the 60s. A few showers cannot be ruled out, but it looks mainly dry. We’re back into warmer weather on Thursday with highs in the 70s and a scattered afternoon shower threat.

The best chance of steady rain next week is Friday as a more organized storm system moves out of the Mid-Atlantic. The timing of the rain may change, but there is likely to be a period of steadier rain at some point late in the workweek or next weekend.

The latest European model weeklies show a relatively wet and slightly cool picture in Southern New England for the next 4-6 weeks. It’s somewhat of a flip from earlier forecasts, and we’ll see if the trend continues with the next update Monday evening. 

EPS weeklies shows above normal precipitation in most of the Eastern United States over the next four weeks. Florida could get plenty of liquid sunshine!
This temperature pattern reflects a quasi-stationary frontal boundary stretching from near Chicago into the Mid-Atlantic in the next several weeks. Near to slightly cooler than normal weather in Southern New England. 
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Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist

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