Passing showers Tuesday afternoon and night will give way to dry and warmer weather through the end of the workweek and into the Memorial Day weekend. There is a decent chance that a back-door cold front cools the weather on Sunday afternoon and especially Monday. It’s possible the temperature will be 10-15° above normal on Saturday, and 10-15° below normal on Monday in part of Southern New England.
Wednesday and Thursday look nice with some sunshine and highs in the 70s. It will be mid to upper 70s on Wednesday, and low to mid 70s on Thursday as a weak back-door cold front brings a wind shift to the east for most of RI and SE MA.
The wind swings around to the west on Friday and that starts pumping in warmer air. It will not be humid on Friday, but the mugginess may increase Saturday into early Sunday. Expect dew points to reach the mid 60s Saturday afternoon and for part of Sunday before the front moves through. Highs will likely be in the 70s at the coast and 80s inland on Friday and Saturday. The timing of the front is important for Sunday’s high temperature. At some point in the afternoon, it could be in the 50s along the Eastern Massachusetts coast, and close to 80° in western RI and CT. Showers and t-storms are possible on Sunday as the front passes.
Monday looks cooler with the backdoor front nearby. The best chance of temperatures in the 50s/60s is in Eastern Massachusetts. We’ll have to wait a few days to know if the front will push all the way through RI and into at least part of CT. The latest European operational run is not as aggressive as the ensemble members in bringing the front through.
Looking further down the road, the temperature looks close to normal (overall) at the end of May and in early June. Precipitation also looks close to normal.
Hurricane season starts on June 1, and there may be a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico before the end of the Memorial Day weekend. The National Hurricane Center predicts a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 5 days in the GOM. The EPS members are not predicting a particularly impressive system.