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August 10th Update

The devil is in the details for the weekend forecast. A brief respite from unsettled weather comes to an end as soon as late Friday in parts of Southern New England. It likely stays dry through the day in most areas, but clouds will increase during the afternoon. Heavy showers are possible at night in western New England as a disturbance approaches from the west. Expect highs in the 80s on Friday with lower humidity than we’ve seen for most of this month. 

Rain estimate for the PAST 60 days shows more than a foot in western New England, but much less in coastal RI and SE MA

Saturday looks showery, with the best chance of torrential downpours in Connecticut and western Massachusetts. It may stay mainly dry through most of the morning in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts. It’s a very tough call. It will be considerably cooler with temps in the low to mid 70s and a northeast breeze. There is a lower thunderstorm and severe weather threat than last weekend’s storm system. There is still plenty of water in the air above, so flash flooding could be an issue for the hardest hit areas. 

The different EP members bring an average of around 2″ of rain to the Providence area in the next 5 days, but you can see that the timing of the heavy rain varies between each member, making the details of the weekend forecast very difficult.

Unsettled weather continues Saturday night and Sunday. Higher dew point air will be working north on Sunday and this warm front will serve as the focal point for more potentially heavy downpours. Warm fronts in August can bring flash flooding and severe weather. Given the way this summer has gone with several weak tornadoes in Southern New England, it’s something to keep an eye on. Like Saturday, it is not an all-day washout on Sunday. There will be dry stretches, but also some sky-openers that bring heavy downpours. Highs will be in the 70s. 

WPC 24-hour rain forecast from 8 am Saturday to 8 am Sunday shows the bulk of it in CT and central MA, with lower amounts to the east.
The axis of heavier showers may shift to the east into RI and part of SE MA between 8 am Sunday and 8 am Monday

The lowest chance of heavy rain over the weekend is in Eastern Massachusetts – particularly Cape Cod and the islands. The greatest risk of a few inches of rain is in CT and RI – especially west of Narragansett Bay. Having said that, it’s nearly impossible to depict where the axis of heaviest rain will happen. 

The weather does not look much better early next week. Expect more showers and thunderstorms from time to time on Monday and Tuesday. 

WPC 7 Day rain forecast shows a very unsettled pattern continuing through mid-August. Odds are some towns will get 8-10″ of rain in the next week, while there may be others that get less than 2″, but this gives you a general idea of the wet pattern

The general pattern looks humid and unsettled through August 20th. There will likely be some completely dry days in there – especially mid to late in the workweek. Expect a lot of nights with the low temperature not far from 70°. A warm and wet August continues. 

Hurricane activity is expected to remain low into the end of the month. NOAA released an updated forecast for the season. They now have a 60% chance of a below-normal season. Remember though, it only takes one…

EPS keeps the tropics quiet for the next two weeks

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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