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December 4 – Model Trends Next Week

The weather for the rest of this week looks rather quiet, so we’ll take a look at what the computer models are saying for a potential storm in the Monday-Wednesday time frame next week. Over the past few days, the models have drifted south and out to sea with the storm potential, but the trend today seems to be a little closer to the coast. It’s too early to write off the possibility of snow/rain/wind sometime between Monday and Wednesday. 

This is the storm that will develop in the next couple of days in the Atlantic Ocean – it’s far enough away that we won’t notice it
The European model has an intense storm too close for comfort on Tuesday
GFS model has the storm next week further south on Tuesday – it’s a miss
Canadian model brings snow and wind to Southern New England on Tuesday
Japanese model is very far south
German ICON model is close, but not close enough for rain/snow/wind in Southern New England on Tuesday
New GFS FV3 (experimental) is also offshore early Tuesday
EPS predicts about a 20-25% chance of 0.25″ precipitation early next week

The bottom-line is that we are still looking at a better chance of a miss than a hit from a storm early next week. I’ll keep watching the trends to see if it drifts back closer to the coast in the next couple of days. 

In the meantime, it stays chilly, with highs in the 30s most days over the next 7-8 days. Lows will be in the 20s most nights, and might even sneak into the teens if the wind dies down under clear skies. 

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist

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