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January 19 – Trending warmer

The latest developments in the forecast will stoke the fire of the people who like to accuse TV stations and weather forecasts of hyping up potential storms. If you caught my Facebook live yesterday, you may have heard me say that this was an unusual forecast unlike any I’d seen in 20 years. It turns out that there was probably a reason for that…the storm is more likely to take a track close enough to the coast that we get the snow to sleet to rain scenario for most of CT, RI, and SE MA. The freezing rain threat has shifted inland to northern CT and NW RI, and may go farther north into the MA Pike area. Here are the latest developments:

  • Light snow or flurries possible this afternoon and early evening in RI and SE MA – could get a thin coating. This is well ahead of the main storm which may actually take longer to reach Southern New England
  • Steadier precipitation associated with the storm may not reach CT until 8-10 pm, and into RI 9-11 (although RI could see the lighter stuff earlier)
  • A faster change to sleet and rain is likely from south to north tonight. I am leaning towards an inch or less of snow at the coast, 2-3″ in the dark blue area, and 5-6″ in the purple shaded area
  • Rain will be heavy at times late tonight and Sunday morning. The freezing rain threat is diminished for most of CT, RI and SE MA
  • There is a risk of icing in northern CT and NW RI – depending on how much the warm air can intrude. Given the storm’s track trend, I think it may be a bigger problem in central/northern MA. 
  • A flash freeze is likely between late Sunday morning and mid-afternoon as cold air charges back in as the storm departs – the temperature will fall 10-15 degrees in 1-3 hours – travel may be difficult Sunday afternoon/evening
  • Light sleet/snow lingers Sunday afternoon into the evening, and may not end until 6-10 pm from west to east
  • A crusty coating of snow/sleet is likely as the temperature plummets with gusty winds
  • 40-45 mph gusts are possible
  • Look for single digits with -10 to -20 wind chills early Monday morning

That’s about it for now. New information is rolling in. My bet is the warming trend will continue and we’ll be at the low end of the snow forecast range. 

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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