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January 27 – Messy mix Tuesday

The workweek begins with quiet weather on Monday. It will be a chilly day with temps in the 30s. A storm system arrives on Tuesday. It’s not a major storm and will be a fast-mover, but it should be a nuisance for many in Southern New England. The exact track of the storm is important for precipitation type in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.

Light snow showers and flurries are possible during the day on Tuesday. A coating-1″ cannot be ruled out, but significant accumulation is unlikely because this will be light precipitation ahead of the main storm system. It will be more ocean-effect than anything else. Steadier precipitation arrives late in the day in Connecticut and during the evening in Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts. At the same time as the steady precipitation’s arrival, milder air will be surging north with the storm center. A period of snow/mix is likely before a change to rain in most of CT, RI, and E MA. The western half of Connecticut is most uncertain for the change to rain because of the storm’s track.

The current track favors the most snow in the NW Hills of CT where more than 3″ is possible. It looks like 0-2″ for the rest of CT, RI, and E MA – with the lowest totals in E MA where it may be all rain. The storm track is critical, and still slightly uncertain.

The storm moves quickly, and only 6-8 hours (at most) of steady precipitation is likely. Recent storms have brought 1-3″ of liquid precipitation to Southern New England, this one is more likely to be 0.25-0.5″ liquid equivalent, with 0.5-0.8″ possible on the northwest (colder) side of the storm. Speaking of colder, it may never get very mild even if the precipitation is mainly rain overnight. It ends from west to east between 3-7 am, and it may end as snow/mix. Cold air rushes back in behind the storm, so a slick Wednesday morning commute is possible.

I will have another update on the tricky Tuesday into Wednesday forecast on Monday. As for the rest of the week, it looks pretty straight forward. Wednesday will be bright, but chilly, with temps struggling to reach 30. It gets even colder Wednesday night into Thursday. Arctic air moves from the Midwest to the Northeast. Near-zero lows are possible inland Wednesday night. It will be in the single digits to low teens elsewhere. Thursday will be dry and very cold, with temps in the teens. It will not be as frigid on Friday, with temps bouncing back into the 20s – still cold, though! The warm-up continues next weekend. Most of the weekend looks dry with temps in the 30s on Saturday and 40s on Sunday. Rain is possible by late Sunday.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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