January 8 – Dreary night; Colder late week; Storm watching

It stays damp and dreary Tuesday night into early Wednesday. There will be patchy dense fog, drizzle, and passing showers. The temperature will stay above freezing in most of Rhode Island and Connecticut, and it will be above freezing in all of Southeastern Massachusetts. It will be near freezing in parts of inland CT and NW RI. Those most at risk in CT for black ice include Hartford County, Northern Fairfield County, and the Quiet Corner. The best bet for steady rain is late at night between 2-7 am. A change to mixed precipitation or snow cannot be ruled out in the high terrain of NW and NE CT. If there’s accumulation, it will probably be in highest NW CT hills. 

The storm system departs on Wednesday with a gusty wind and temperatures rebounding into the low to mid 40s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. The wind will stay very active Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Expect 20-35 mph gusts – strongest on Wednesday. The temperature dips below freezing Wednesday night and will not rebound much on Thursday – even with some sun. Expect highs in the low to mid 30s. 

The chill settles in Friday and stays through the weekend. Expect highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s Friday through Sunday. Lows will be in the teens to low 20s at best. Skies will be mainly clear Friday and Saturday. 

A Sunday/Monday snow event cannot be ruled out, but it’s far from the most likely scenario at this point. We’ll have to see how the jet stream energy evolves over the next few days. Right now, that disturbance is over the Pacific Ocean. It should reach California early Thursday, and at that point we’ll get a better read on how it will move across the United States. 

The European Control run is a miss for Southern New England, and the 14-day snow total is very meager. 

The GEFS ensemble has at least a minor event in about 50% of the members, and a plowable to significant event in about 30% of the members. Again, the odds due not favor a Nor’easter, but it’s still possible.