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February 15 – Rest of the winter outlook

The winter of 2018-19 has been rather wet, slightly mild, and not very snowy. The pattern has hinted at increasing snow chances in late February. Looking at last night’s models, the odds of significant snow Sunday night into Monday are pretty low. It looks like a coating-2″ event at worst for CT, RI and SE MA. Another system in the midweek could bring snow/mix, and there may be a third on the way for next weekend. The potential storms in the midweek and next weekend do not look like exclusively snow – but that’s nothing new this winter.

This winter is in the top-10 wettest on record with two weeks to go
It has also been slightly warmer than normal this winter

The latest computer model runs of the European Weeklies and CVSv2 hint at a continued relatively wet/warm weather pattern through March. The Euro weeklies show near to above normal snow in New England. This has been a theme for several runs, but the snow events are not coming to fruition. For instance, the Euro wanted to bring a solid 4-6″ of snow with the storm earlier this week. It was more along the lines of 2-4″. I think the model is probably overstating the amount of snow that will fall in Southern New England for the rest of the winter. I expect near to slightly below normal snowfall from here on out, which is about 8-12″, with the most inland.

Temperature-wise, I’m looking for near to slightly below normal temps through the first week or two of March before warming to near to slightly above normal temps in the mid to late month.

EPS – above normal precipitation in Eastern US through March
CFS precipitation pattern is similar to EPS
EPS keeps the relatively cold weather mainly in the Western US
CFS temperature pattern is about the same as EPS
EPS mean snowfall through March is impressive for New England, but the model has been consistently overestimating the amount of snow this winter

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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