Providence is on a run of 14 out of 16 days with measurable precipitation. Hartford is doing one better with at least 0.01″ rain on 15 of the last 16 days! Saturday will add another wet day to the streak, and it looks like we’ll squeeze out a few hundredths on Sunday even if a storm system stays mainly south New England. The bottom-line is that this will likely not be the best weekend of May, but it’s not quite a washout, either.
The $64,000 question is how quickly a front will move offshore on Saturday. There are two camps – one has the steady rain ending by 8 a.m. with gradual improvement in the morning and a nice afternoon. The other camp keeps steady rain around until late in the morning, with slow afternoon improvement. I’m leaning a bit more towards the pessimistic solution with showers hanging around for a few hours in the morning. I think that the afternoon will be dry, but it may not be particularly bright.
0.25-5″ of rain tonight and Saturday morning means it could take a little while for the grass to dry before mowing it on Saturday. Your best bet is late in the day. The Saturday temperature hinges on how long the rain lasts and whether we’ll break into any afternoon sunshine. In a worst-case scenario it’s in the mid 50s – about 10° below normal. If the sun breaks through, it will get into the low to mid 60s.
The Sunday forecast is no picnic, either. Since midweek, it’s looked like Sunday would be a borderline washout, but that forecast is improving. Expect a glancing blow from a storm system sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The best bet for scattered showers Sunday is in the morning. The afternoon looks mainly dry with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Mainly dry weather is ahead for the early to middle part of next week. The best bet for rain between Monday and midday Thursday is Tuesday afternoon/evening as a front pushes through. Look for highs in the 60s Monday, possibly in the 70s on Tuesday, then back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.
The generally unsettled weather pattern resumes with rain likely Thursday PM into early Friday. That front gets hung up near New England, and it’s possible another wave of low pressure rides along it bringing a round of rain early in the weekend.