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July 1 – Mostly dry, warm 4th of July week

The week of the 4th is a great time for a fairly quiet stretch of weather in New England. An afternoon shower or storm cannot be completely ruled out most days, but that’s typical for this time of the year. The threat is also rather low on Thursday and Friday, with a just a few isolated t-storms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. If you’re looking ahead to the weekend, there is a better chance of thunderstorms on Saturday.

A stray shower is possible on Tuesday afternoon

The low humidity that we enjoyed on Monday will not be staying around for too long. Monday night looks seasonably mild with lows in the low to mid 60s. The dew point will climb into the 60s on Tuesday and likely stay there through Friday before reaching the low 70s briefly on Saturday. That’s pretty uncomfortable.

A pop-up shower or t-storm is possible on Tuesday, but it does not look like a widespread rain threat. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s with a west to southwest breeze. Wednesday looks like a typical mid-summer day with highs again in the low to mid 80s and a bit more humidity. There is a very slight risk of a pop-up shower/storm on Wednesday. It will stay dry for most.

The 4th of July looks fine with highs close to 90 inland and in the 80s at the beach. Friday will also be a very nice day with similar high temperatures inland, but closer to 80 at the beach with a southeast wind.

The best bet for showers and t-storms this week is on Saturday as a front moves through. The high temperature is uncertain for Saturday because it’s not known how cloudy it will be. With sunshine, it could get close to 90 before storms threat. It will feel warmer because of the high humidity. Even with clouds, it should reach the 80s.

If the front gets offshore, Sunday will be a nice day with lower humidity. The overall theme for the second week of July looks seasonably warm, but not as warm (relative to normal) as the first week of the month. June saw near to above normal rain in RI and SE MA, but below normal through most of CT. The pattern in the first two weeks of July does not look very wet, so it’s possible some of the lush lawns may turn brown as so often happens in mid-summer in New England.

June rainfall departure from normal (in)

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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