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August 28 – Tropical downpours ahead; Warm start to Labor Day weekend

A cold front is interacting with moisture from Tropical Storm Erin in the Atlantic Ocean to bring the potential for heavy downpours Wednesday afternoon and night. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts. The best chance for heavy downpours in Connecticut is east of I-91.

Flash Flood Watch Wednesday PM into early Thursday
Tropical moisture plume off Erin ahead of the cold front

While 1-2″ of rain is likely in many RI and SE MA towns, the hardest hit areas could get more than 2.5″ of rain leading to localized flooding. It’s impossible to pin down which towns will get the heaviest rain. The threat of heavy downpours begins in the afternoon and lasts through most of the night.

The storm will move away early Thursday and it will not take too long to get back to warm sunshine. Look for highs in the low to mid 80s on Thursday. The dew point will rise to near 70 Wednesday night before falling into the low 60s on Thursday.

Rain may return by late Sunday

The Labor Day weekend begins with great late-summer weather before a slow-moving system threatens with showers Sunday and Monday. Expect highs in the low-mid 80s on Friday with mostly sunny skies. Saturday will also be mostly sunny with highs closer to 80. Clouds increase on Sunday with highs in the 70s. Showers are possible in the afternoon and evening. The shower threat increases on Monday with highs in the 70s.

Dorian threatens Southeastern US

Tropical Storm Dorian is near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday. It will move north of the islands Wednesday night and turn more westerly while moving north of the Bahamas late in the workweek. Conditions are favorable for strengthening as the storm nears the United States coast. Right now, it looks like the storm will hit Florida in the Sunday-Monday time frame. A turn to the north into Georgia or the Carolinas is still possible, but not the most likely scenario.

30-40% odds of a hurricane near Florida this weekend
EPS tracks for Dorian – the tracks through South Florida are most concerning. The storm could be a strong hurricane while passing through South Florida before making a second landfall along the Gulf Coast. Notable storms that have taken similar paths are Andrew and Katrina. While Dorian is not in the same class as those storms, a lot can happen when it’s over the warm water north of the Bahamas.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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