Labor Day will feature a fair amount of clouds with the potential for a few gusty afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The storms will be scattered, and the best chance for strong winds and frequent lightning in the afternoon is in west of I-91 in CT. There is a lower risk of strong storms through the evening in eastern CT, RI and SE MA. The storms may weaken as they move from west to east. Expect highs in the 70s on Monday.
The weather looks quiet and warm Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs will be near 80 on Tuesday with some sunshine. It will not be too humid during the day, but the mugginess will increase at night as the wind shifts to the southwest. Wednesday looks windy, warm and muggy. Highs will be 75-80 under partly sunny skies. The wind may gust over 30 mph out of the southwest. The best chance of showers/storms on Wednesday is late in the day and during the evening as a front passes.
Cooler and dry weather is ahead for Thursday. Look for highs near 70. We’ll turn our attention to Hurricane Dorian on Friday and Saturday. Odds favor the storm passing out to sea with minimal impact in Southern New England. The best chance of wind and rain directly related to the storm is on Nantucket. The storm’s projected track could shift a bit as it moves along the Southeastern United States coast in the midweek. If it looks like it will come close enough for gusty wind and rain, I will let you know as soon as possible. There’s a better chance of mainly dry weather with a breeze near the coast. There will likely be swells and rough surf as a result of the powerful storm churning up the Atlantic Ocean.
Dorian caused catastrophic damage in the northern Bahamas with winds of 185 mph. It is tied for second on the all-time list for strongest winds from an Atlantic Basin hurricane. Only Allen (190 mph) in 1980 had stronger winds. The last 185 mph hurricane in the Atlantic was Wilma in 2005. It is the ninth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin by sea level pressure (910 mb). Maria in 2017 is above it on the list with a lowest pressure of 908 mb. Wilma is at the top of the list with a remarkably low pressure of 882 mb.
Dorian should gradually weaken from a Category 5 hurricane to a Category 1 as it passes off the Florida then Southeast US coast. Tropical storm conditions along with battering waves are likely for the entire Southeastern US coast including Florida this week. The hurricane force winds will likely stay offshore based on the current consensus track.
Meteorological summer is in the books, and it was another warm one in Southern New England. It was a top-6 warmest in Hartford and Bridgeport, and it was the 11th warmest on record in Providence. Rainfall ranged from rather dry in the Hartford area to wet at the Connecticut Shoreline and slightly wet in Rhode Island.