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September 30 – Big changes ahead

A month that started out with near normal temperatures for the first couple of weeks then took a warm turn will end with the average temperature 1-2 degrees above normal for the month as a whole. It has also been a very dry month with 25-50% of the normal rain falling throughout most of CT, RI and SE MA. There’s not excessive rain in the forecast for the next week, but we should at least get some in the middle of this week with back-to-back systems on Wednesday and Thursday.

Showers move in late Wednesday afternoon

You can expect fairly quiet weather on Tuesday. It will not be very cool by early October standards Monday night into early Tuesday. Look for lows in the low-mid 50s countryside and closer to 60 at the coast. Tuesday looks warmest in the western half of CT, with highs in the mid 70s. It will be near 70 in eastern CT, RI and SE MA under a blend of clouds and sunshine.

I hope that you have not pulled the window A/C units out yet because you will probably want to flip them on Tuesday afternoon as the temperature stays well into the 60s Tuesday night. It will also be rather muggy. Wednesday looks like a dynamic day as you can see from the temperature map below. The timing of a front is critical for high temperatures in the RI and SE MA. If it’s delayed a bit, then 80+ is possible. If it arrives in the afternoon, then expect 70s falling into the 50s by early Wednesday evening. There is a better chance of reaching 80 in CT as the front will take longer to reach that part of Southern New England.

Wide temperature range in Southern New England Wednesday afternoon

The front will be accompanied by some showers, so keep that in mind for any planned outdoor activities Wednesday – especially in the afternoon. Cooler air arrives late Wednesday, and it’s possible this is the last we’ll see of 75+ weather until next spring. The overall pattern looks closer to normal for the first half of October. A second storm system will likely bring cool rain on Thursday. It’s the closest thing we’ve had to a completely wet day in a while. It will not be very heavy rain, but there’s a decent chance of picking up 0.5″ rain between Wednesday’s showers and Thursday’s steadier rain.

Mainly dry weather returns on Friday, and the weekend will likely be dry and cool. Saturday looks pretty chilly with temperatures struggling to reach 60. It should be a bit milder on Sunday. There may be low temperatures in the 30s in the countryside Saturday and Sunday morning. Next week most likely begins with mainly dry weather before a storm system threatens with more rain sometime between late Monday and midday Wednesday.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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