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October 4 – Cold Saturday morning; Seasonable next week

The coldest night since April is ahead for many towns in Southern New England. The temperature will dip into the 30s inland with patchy frost possible by dawn on Saturday. It may stay in the low 40s near the coast and bay. Look for a lot of sunshine on Saturday. It will be a cool day, but not bad for apple or pumpkin picking. The high temperature will be near 60.

Low temps Saturday morning (NAM model)

Saturday night will be chilly, but it may not be quite as cold as Friday night. Expect lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Clouds increase on Sunday, with the temperature climbing into the low-mid 60s in the afternoon. Milder and humid weather arrives Sunday night into Monday morning. It may not get below 60 degrees Sunday night with patchy fog, mist and drizzle possible late at night.

An approaching cold front will bring mild weather then showers on Monday. Scattered showers are possible during the day, with a better chance of rain at night into early Tuesday. The temperature will jump into the upper 60s to low 70s with a gusty southwest wind. It will stay mild Monday night with showers passing through. It does not look like a big soaker, with 0.2-0.4″ rain most likely.

The weather looks fairly quiet and seasonable in the middle to end of next workweek. It should dry out Tuesday afternoon with temps in the 60s. Look for lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s Wednesday through Friday. The forecast is uncertain for next weekend. Some computer models favor the dry pattern continuing, but others show a storm system nearby. Stay tuned!

Here’s a little food for thought. The EPS weeklies show snow for the northern tier states in the next six weeks. The lion’s share is in the Rockies/West.

EPS 46 day snow total through Nov 17

October usually means diminishing activity in the tropics and more attention on what the winter may bring our way. One of the possible harbingers of winter weather is the Siberian snow advance. As you can see, the snowpack is growing in Siberia pretty quickly this month. A snowy October in Siberia can be an indicator of a rough winter in the Northeastern United States. While it’s off to a quick start, that does not necessarily mean it will continue. I will be watching it this month.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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