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October 7 – Close call with an ocean storm

The forecast is fairly straightforward for early this week as a cold front approaches from the west on Monday. A gusty southwest wind will pump in mild/humid air Monday afternoon. A few stray showers are possible before sunset with a better chance of rain Monday night. Expect temps in the 70s on Monday ahead of the front. Showers may linger a bit on Tuesday morning as the front moves offshore.

Showers are likely Monday night – expect between 0.2-0.5″ rain in Southern New England

The best chance of any rain after sunrise on Tuesday is in RI and SE MA, and it does not look like steady rain. The sky will become partly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the mid 60s in Connecticut and low 60s in Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts.

Offshore Storm Brewing

Two disturbances offshore will likely combine into a large ocean storm

The National Hurricane Center is watching two disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean for development in the next 2-5 days. The orange shaded area will drift west over the next few days. The yellow area will likely be the main storm, but it may not have tropical characteristics. These two systems combined will lurk offshore this week, and there is a lot of uncertainty about if/when the storm will drift close enough to bring rain and possibly gusty wind to New England.

I am favoring mainly dry and seasonably cool weather in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts in the midweek. It’s possible that there will be some rain on Connecticut (especially west) on Wednesday into early Thursday as a trough of low pressure lurks nearby. These troughs are very difficult to predict, and it’s still quite possible that the rain will not develop. Temperatures will be near 60 during the day and in the 40s to low 50s at night.

A look at the two ocean storms in the mid to late workweek

High pressure over eastern Canada may keep the weather dry in Southern New England Thursday afternoon through at least Friday morning as the storm continues spinning offshore. Right now, it looks like the best chance of rain is between late Friday and Sunday morning as the storm is drawn north by a system approaching from the west. The bottom-line is this…it’s a highly uncertain forecast and rain cannot be ruled out between Wednesday and Sunday, but I favor most/all of the rain coming sometime between late Friday and Sunday morning.

It’s early, but the weather looks dry and seasonable from Columbus Day through the middle of next week.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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