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August 14 – Mainly dry pattern continues

There was beneficial rain near the coast of Southern New England on Thursday. It has been a dry summer and Rhode Island, Southeastern Massachusetts and most of inland Connecticut are in a moderate drought. Unfortunately, it looks like there will be near-misses in the next 10-14 days, and significant widespread rain is unlikely.

Drought conditions in New England

Most of the rain in the next 1-2 weeks will stay over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern United States. After a mostly hot stretch in the end of July and start of August, the weather will be cooler over the weekend with an onshore breeze. It should get back to seasonable or warmer than normal in the upcoming week.

EPS model has a dry two weeks in the Midwest and Northeast
New GEFS model is not quite as dry, but still slightly below normal in next week

The hyperactive tropical season continues with Josephine churning in the Atlantic Ocean. That storm will likely weaken without impacting land. There is also a disturbance near the Mid-Atlantic coast that will drift out to sea south of New England. There is a low chance it comes close enough to bring rain to coastal New England, but the odds favor it staying far enough offshore that it stays dry in New England.

50% chance the orange X becomes Tropical Storm Kyle as it drifts off the East Coast in the next 2-5 days.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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