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August – Connecticut bears the brunt of Isaias

Tropical Storm Isaias races up the East Coast on Tuesday with strong winds, heavy rain and possible tornadoes. Connecticut will be the hardest hit state in Southern New England. Wind gusts over 60 mph are likely in the Nutmeg State Tuesday afternoon. Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts will not be spared from strong winds, with gusts in the 50 mph range possible late Tuesday afternoon into the evening.

It looks like the heaviest rain with Isaias will stay west of New England. Any showers and storms that lift through New England in the afternoon and evening could rotate and cause spin-up tornadoes. There’s a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in Southern New England. That’s not a high risk of tornadoes, but it’s not zero, either.

Heaviest rain stays west of New England

The storm will be moving quickly, so the storm surge will not be huge. Expect tides 1-2 feet above normal this afternoon and evening.

There will not be much rain at all for eastern CT, RI and SE MA as the storm passes. western CT could get up to an inch of rain with more widespread showers likely. It’s possible some towns in eastern CT, RI and SE MA will see the storm pass by without more than a very brief shower with the strongest wind gusts.

Strongest winds are likely at the CT Shoreline

Peak sustained winds between 25-40 mph are likely near the coast, with the strongest winds at the CT coast. Peak wind gusts of 55-70 mph are possible at the CT coast, and 40-55 mph for RI and SE MA. Peak gusts inland will likely be between 35-50 mph – strongest in CT.

The worst of the storm will be this afternoon in Connecticut, late afternoon and early evening in Rhode Island, and early to mid evening in eastern Massachusetts. The storm’s center moves out of New England into Canada by early Wednesday, and quiet weather follows in its wake. A pop-up shower cannot be ruled out on Wednesday, but it looks dry most of the time.

The next chance of steady rain is on Friday as a disturbance lifts north from the Mid-Atlantic. The weekend looks mainly dry and seasonable.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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