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October 18 – No drought-busting rain this week

It has been a wetter than normal October so far, but the upcoming week looks mainly dry in Southern New England. Scattered showers are possible in the midweek. Less than 0.25″ of rain is likely for most of Southern New England through the end of the workweek.

EPS shows light rain showers in the midweek, with a better chance of a steadier rain event late in the week or early next week.

The weather will be relatively warm this week. It should average 5-8° warmer than normal. Late in the week or early next week there is a better chance of a storm system that could bring steady rain to New England.

A warm week ahead

Snow before Thanksgiving?

Long-range computer models show the potential for some snow in early November. It’s not unprecedented, and it’s something that part of Southern New England saw last year before a very mild winter.

EPS shows some snow in northern New England before October ends
GEFS 35-day run has a relatively snowy November in New England, and this run ends on November 21

Long-range models are not always accurate, and we have good reason to believe that the weather will be relatively warm for the next 10 days or so. Whether a change to cold weather happens in early November, is still questionable, but there are some signs that early-season snow is possible. The overall theme for winter from NOAA is for relatively warm weather in New England, but that’s nothing new and does not necessarily impede it from being a snowy winter.

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Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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