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January 19 – Still waiting on winter

The weather is gradually turning a bit colder in Southern New England early this week. The colder weather will be accompanied by snow showers and flurries through the midweek. The best chance of a minor snow accumulation is early Wednesday in Connecticut. Snow showers are possible during the day in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts. There is a lower chance of it sticking to pavement with temps in the low-mid 30s and the snow falling during the day.

Mainly or all dry weather is likely from Friday through the weekend. There is still a chance of snow in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, but that system may slide too far south to bring any precipitation to Southern New England. At this point, even though the computer model image below shows snow, the odds of snow are about 25% based on latest trends.

Storm track through the Mid-Atlantic early next week

Colder weather next week

It will definitely feel more like mid-winter next week. Highs will generally be not too far from freezing. Expect lows in the teens and 20s from this weekend through next week. In fact, it may be colder than normal, for a change, in the last week of January and early February.

It will definitely be colder in late January than it was early in the month

As for snow, ensemble models that are best at predicting long-range trends, show some in the Northeast, including Southern New England, for the last week of the month into the first few days of February. I will note that the control members of these ensembles are not as bullish on snow. They bring the cold, but not much precipitation. The bottom-line is the weather pattern looks plenty cold for snow around February 1. However, the storm track may not be favorable to deliver on that promise in Southern New England.

Ensemble mean favors some snow late this month…we’ll see

In some ways, this setup reminds me of a much less severe version of the winter of 2014-15. That was the winter when the storm track came alive for Southern New England in late January as increasingly cold air poured into the Northeast. I do not expect anything close to that historic cold/snowy stretch, but a minor version of it is possible. Maybe we will get something that brings near normal snow/cold for the month of February.

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Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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