The National Hurricane Center has raised the chance to high that a system off the Florida coast will develop into a tropical storm. According to the hurricane center, the storm has a 60% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours, and 80% of it happening in the next 5 days. Here is the 2 PM Sunday statement:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...corrected NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2014 corrected tropical depression development status For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Satellite wind data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system located about 230 miles east of St. Augustine, Florida, is gradually becoming better defined as it moves slowly southward to southwestward. Although upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or two. However, the system's proximity to dry air could inhibit significant development until environmental conditions become more conducive by late Tuesday while the low meanders offshore of the Florida east coast. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled, and the flight has been rescheduled for Monday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
The storm is expected to meander offshore in a favorable environment for development over the next few days. Eventually, it may move toward the Southeast Coast and most of the computer models take it out to sea southeast of Nantucket. It definitely bears watching as it could develop into a strong tropical storm or hurricane given the lack of wind shear and warm Gulf Stream water.
The long-awaited pattern change to something more summery appears to be taking place. The upcoming week will be warm and muggy, but not incredibly hot. Highs inland will be well into the 80s. A south-southwest wind will keep it cooler near the coast. A cold front late in the week may tap into the moisture from the tropical system, and Thursday and Friday look unsettled with showers and thunderstorms. We’ll be keeping an eye on the potential tropical system for an impact, potentially only in offshore waters, next weekend.
Looking further ahead, the latest computer model runs show hot weather for the Eastern United States during the week after the 4th of July. At this point, it looks like a heat wave is possible in the first half of that week. It’s an 8-10 day forecast, so there is still plenty of time for it to change, but it finally looks like the pattern that’s dominated for the past few months will be evolving to a summer-like one.
