February 15 – Snow odds increase for Sunday night into Monday

Friday featured some wacky weather with gusty winds, temps in the 50s and showers yielding lightning/thunder as they moved through Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts in the afternoon. The shower threat ends around midnight and the temperature falls to near freezing by dawn on Saturday. Look for dry skies with a northwest breeze on Saturday. It will be cooler, but not really cold for February, with highs not far from 40°. There will be a blend of clouds and sun. The temperature dips to the teens to low 20s by dawn on Sunday under clear skies with a light northerly wind.

Sunday looks like a dry “day” with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. It will be sunny through noon, then clouds arrive ahead of a storm system that will likely bring at least snow showers and flurries Sunday night. The latest information on this storm system suggests a higher likelihood of several hours of light snow leading to accumulation Sunday night into Monday morning.

I expect snow to break out after sunset Sunday from west to east across Connecticut, Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. The first flakes are possible in far western CT by 6 pm, and it may take until 10-11 pm for the snow to reach Plymouth County, MA. In general, let’s go with a 7-10 pm start time. The best chance of steady snow is Sunday night, and based on the latest trends, it looks like enough to slow travel a bit Sunday night and Monday morning. I am expecting 1-2″ with a few 3″ amounts possible. Since it’s a weak storm and we’re on the northern edge of it, if it shifts south the odds of snow dwindle. There should be enough cold around for this to be an all-snow event – a rarity this winter.

The center of the storm moves away from the coast early Monday, but a trough may hang back behind the storm and allow snow to linger for several hours on Monday. It looks like the snow will be light enough and the temperature mild enough that snow will not stick well to pavement during the day. Again, there’s uncertainty with this part of the forecast, and I’m hoping it comes into focus in the next 36 hours.

Dry weather is likely Tuesday into Wednesday before the next storm threatens with more snow/rain late Wednesday through Thursday. The early, early outlook on that one is for snow followed by mix/rain – a scenario that has played out a few times this winter. The weather action may continue with another storm system possible next weekend. I’ve been advertising an active second half of February, and it’s lining up pretty well. It may not be enough to take the month above normal for snowfall. It’s a slight improvement over January for snow-lovers, and it’s more typical of a New England winter.