Analysis

Computer Model Trends: Thursday evening

Highest resolution WRF (NAM) shows a max snow total of nearly 40" near the RI/CT border. It has a widespread 2 foot + snow for all of Southeastern New England except the Cape/Islands where amounts fall off quickly.
Highest resolution WRF (NAM) shows a max snow total of nearly 40″ near the RI/CT border. It has a widespread 2 foot + snow for all of Southeastern New England except the Cape/Islands where amounts fall off quickly.
This BUFKIT tool takes the NAM data and displays it graphically. Based on this run the NAM is projecting a near-record 27-28" in the Providence area. Snowfall rates are 3+" per hour Friday night. That's almost unheard of.
This BUFKIT tool takes the NAM data and displays it graphically. Based on this run the NAM is projecting a near-record 27-28″ in the Providence area. Snowfall rates are 3+” per hour Friday night. That’s almost unheard of.

21Z SREF – Short Range Ensemble Forecast

This is a probability graphic showing the odds of certain thresholds of snow totals being reached. That’s the first time I’ve seen a 95%+ chance of 1 foot of snow in NW RI, NE CT, and interior SE MA. That is very impressive!

21Z SREF - snow odds - Click to enlarge
21Z SREF – snow odds – Click to enlarge
21Z SREF - the lines represent all the different ensemble members. The thick black line is the average of all the other lines. The average on this chart (for TF GREEN) is about 27". Yikes! That would be #2 all-time to the Blizzard of '78
21Z SREF – the lines represent all the different ensemble members. The thick black line is the average of all the other lines. The average on this chart (for TF GREEN) is about 27″. Yikes! That would be #2 all-time to the Blizzard of ’78
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Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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